North America races to secure its lithium supply chain
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As the global energy transition accelerates, lithium has become central to industrial strategy in North America. The region is racing to build an integrated supply chain that transforms raw material into battery-grade products for electric vehicles and energy storage.
This transformation is driven by five converging forces: surging demand, geopolitical realignment, vertical integration from automakers, supply constraints, and the formation of local industrial ecosystems.
Lithium demand surges past supply
Global lithium demand from clean energy is projected to grow nearly fivefold by 2030, from 92,000 to 442,000 tons, according to the International Energy Agency. North American demand alone could increase sixfold by 2030, based on US Department of Energy estimates.
Yet, production in the region falls short. Projects like Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass in Nevada and Green Technology Metals’ Seymour site in Ontario show promise, but years-long timelines make them slow to meet surging demand. Compounding this, refining capacity is limited, meaning raw material often travels abroad for processing.
The mismatch between growing demand and supply readiness creates risk for manufacturers. Without secure access to battery-grade lithium, automakers and battery producers face price volatility and sourcing uncertainty.
Geopolitical pressures trigger supply chain realignment
China currently refines nearly 60% of global lithium and leads in battery production. This dominance has prompted a strategic pivot in the US and Canada, where governments are deploying capital to build domestic supply chains.
The US has announced over $4 billion in funding for critical mineral and battery projects. Canada has committed more than C$52 billion to electric vehicle and battery manufacturing since 2022. Ontario alone has attracted C$45 billion in EV-related investment, creating a regional pull for lithium producers.
Policy support includes funding, tax credits, and efforts to streamline permitting. These moves aim to lower dependency on foreign sources and accelerate domestic production.
Automakers invest directly in lithium
To secure materials for the long term, automakers are moving upstream. General Motors’ $625 million stake in Thacker Pass secured it a decades-long lithium supply. Ford and Stellantis have also signed offtake agreements with North American producers.
Green Technology Metals has adopted a similar strategy. It signed a deal with LG Energy Solution for 25% of initial output from its Seymour project. It is also planning a lithium conversion facility in Thunder Bay in partnership with EcoPro Innovation.
These moves reflect a broader trend: manufacturers are no longer just buyers but active participants in securing and processing critical inputs.
Supply bottlenecks persist
Despite increased investment, supply-side constraints persist. It is not just about finding lithium, it must be processed into high-purity compounds like lithium hydroxide or carbonate.
Processing is costly, energy intensive, and chemically complex. North American facilities remain limited, even as battery demand accelerates. Recycling capacity is in early stages, and permitting remains a bottleneck, especially in the United States.
Battery chemistry changes also impact supply strategies. Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, for instance, favor different lithium compounds than nickel-rich chemistries. Flexibility in refining and processing will be essential going forward.
Infrastructure and industrial ecosystems take shape
Lithium projects increasingly align with regional industrial hubs. Ontario offers a compelling case, combining natural resources with infrastructure, hydropower, and a growing cluster of battery and EV manufacturers.
Green Technology Metals’ proximity to these assets positions it well to serve local demand. Snow Lake Lithium in Manitoba is another emerging project looking to integrate mining and processing into a domestic value chain.
However, gaps remain. Refining, recycling, and permitting must scale quickly. A coordinated effort across jurisdictions will be required to build a fully integrated lithium economy.
A decisive moment for North American lithium
North America’s lithium sector is at a turning point. Demand is real and rising, but so are risks. Companies that can secure resources, establish processing capacity, and align with downstream partners will have a competitive advantage.
Lithium is no longer just a critical mineral. It is foundational to the continent’s clean energy and industrial future. The next five years will determine whether North America can meet the moment, or remain reliant on foreign supply chains in a fast-changing world.
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